Norwich vs Portsmouth

Sat 17 Oct, 14:00

FT 0-1

AI Prediction

LOW 40%

Norwich

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.37 - 1.23

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Norwich last 4 at home: 2W-0D-2L (scored 9, conceded 7)

6 Portsmouth last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 5, conceded 7)

7 H2H (5): Portsmouth lead 2-1 (2D), avg 2.8 goals, BTTS 60%

8 Norwich without: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo (+14 more)

9 Portsmouth without: B. Arthur, L. Brooke-Smith (+16 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Norwich with an estimated 40% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.37-1.23 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Norwich, so treat this one with extra caution. Norwich have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 9, conceding 7), while Portsmouth have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 7). Portsmouth lead the head-to-head 2-1 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Norwich without: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo (+14 more); Portsmouth without: B. Arthur, L. Brooke-Smith (+16 more).