Millwall vs Lincoln

Sat 17 Oct, 11:30

FT 2-2

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 54%

Millwall

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-2

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.23 - 0.66

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Millwall last 5 at home: 1W-1D-3L (scored 6, conceded 7)

5 Lincoln last 5 away: 3W-0D-2L (scored 3, conceded 7)

6 Millwall without: J. Coburn, C. De Norre (+14 more)

7 Lincoln without: T. Darikwa, T. Hamer (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Millwall with an estimated 54% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.23-0.66 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Millwall have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 6, conceding 7), while Lincoln have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 3, conceding 7). Millwall without: J. Coburn, C. De Norre (+14 more); Lincoln without: T. Darikwa, T. Hamer (+8 more).