Middlesbrough vs Cardiff

Sat 17 Oct, 11:30

FT 2-2

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 64%

Middlesbrough

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-2

Predicted: 3-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.96 - 0.77

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Middlesbrough last 4 at home: 3W-1D-0L (scored 10, conceded 6)

5 Cardiff last 5 away: 0W-1D-4L (scored 4, conceded 9)

6 H2H (10): Middlesbrough lead 6-1 (3D), avg 2.8 goals, BTTS 60%

7 Middlesbrough without: A. Jones, R. Pukstas (+4 more)

8 Cardiff without: C. Chambers, R. Colwill (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Middlesbrough with an estimated 64% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.96-0.77 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Middlesbrough lead the head-to-head 6-1 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Middlesbrough have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 10, conceding 6), while Cardiff have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 9). Middlesbrough without: A. Jones, R. Pukstas (+4 more); Cardiff without: C. Chambers, R. Colwill (+6 more).