Derby vs Stoke City

Sat 17 Oct, 14:00

FT 0-1

AI Prediction

LOW 44%

Stoke City

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-1

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.10 - 1.73

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Derby last 5 at home: 0W-2D-3L (scored 4, conceded 9)

6 Stoke City last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 7, conceded 10)

7 H2H (10): Derby lead 5-3 (2D), avg 2.3 goals, BTTS 40%

8 Derby without: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin (+16 more)

9 Stoke City without: A. Ampah, A. Cresswell (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Stoke City with an estimated 44% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.10-1.73 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Stoke City, so treat this one with extra caution. Derby lead the head-to-head 5-3 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Derby have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 4, conceding 9), while Stoke City have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 10). Derby without: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin (+16 more); Stoke City without: A. Ampah, A. Cresswell (+6 more).