Bristol City vs Sheffield Utd

Sat 17 Oct, 14:00

FT 0-1

AI Prediction

LOW 35%

Sheffield Utd

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-1

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.66 - 0.96

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Bristol City last 4 at home: 2W-0D-2L (scored 3, conceded 3)

6 Sheffield Utd last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 7, conceded 9)

7 H2H (10): Sheffield Utd lead 6-2 (2D), avg 2.3 goals, BTTS 40%

8 Bristol City without: R. Dickie, N. Eile (+6 more)

9 Sheffield Utd without: H. Choudhury, F. Seriki (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Sheffield Utd with an estimated 34% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.66-0.96 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Bristol City, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Sheffield Utd, so treat this one with extra caution. Sheffield Utd lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Bristol City have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 3, conceding 3), while Sheffield Utd have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 9). Bristol City without: R. Dickie, N. Eile (+6 more); Sheffield Utd without: H. Choudhury, F. Seriki (+4 more).