Birmingham vs QPR

Sat 17 Oct, 14:00

FT 3-0

AI Prediction

LOW 43%

Birmingham

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-0

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.21 - 1.34

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Birmingham last 5 at home: 1W-3D-1L (scored 10, conceded 11)

6 QPR last 5 away: 2W-3D-0L (scored 7, conceded 4)

7 H2H (10): even, 2D, avg 1.8 goals, BTTS 40%

8 Birmingham without: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho (+2 more)

9 QPR without: I. Chair, D. Cirkin (+14 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Birmingham with an estimated 43% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.21-1.34 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward QPR, while the blended pick still favours Birmingham, so treat this one with extra caution. Birmingham have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 11), while QPR have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 4). The head-to-head is even (4 win each, 2 draws in their last 10), averaging 1.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Birmingham without: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho (+2 more); QPR without: I. Chair, D. Cirkin (+14 more).