QPR vs Derby

Wed 14 Oct, 18:45

FT 4-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 51%

QPR

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 4-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.04 - 0.69

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 QPR last 5 at home: 1W-3D-1L (scored 5, conceded 5)

5 Derby last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 4, conceded 6)

6 H2H (10): QPR lead 5-4 (1D), avg 2.3 goals, BTTS 40%

7 QPR without: I. Chair, K. Dembele (+4 more)

8 Derby without: P. Agyemang, M. Clarke (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours QPR with an estimated 51% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.04-0.69 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. QPR have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 5, conceding 5), while Derby have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 6). QPR lead the head-to-head 5-4 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. QPR without: I. Chair, K. Dembele (+4 more); Derby without: P. Agyemang, M. Clarke (+10 more).