Portsmouth vs Sheffield Utd

Wed 14 Oct, 18:45

FT 3-2

AI Prediction

LOW 38%

Sheffield Utd

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-2

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.09 - 1.52

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Portsmouth last 4 at home: 1W-1D-2L (scored 5, conceded 7)

6 Sheffield Utd last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 7, conceded 7)

7 H2H (6): Sheffield Utd lead 4-1 (1D), avg 1.8 goals, BTTS 17%

8 Portsmouth without: L. Brooke-Smith, M. Kosznovszky (+10 more)

9 Sheffield Utd without: F. Seriki, F. Seriki

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Sheffield Utd with an estimated 38% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.09-1.52 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Portsmouth, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Sheffield Utd, so treat this one with extra caution. Sheffield Utd lead the head-to-head 4-1 (with 1 draw), averaging 1.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 17% of meetings. Portsmouth have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 5, conceding 7), while Sheffield Utd have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 7). Portsmouth without: L. Brooke-Smith, M. Kosznovszky (+10 more); Sheffield Utd without: F. Seriki, F. Seriki.