Norwich vs Southampton

Wed 14 Oct, 18:45

FT 0-1

AI Prediction

LOW 40%

Norwich

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-1

Predicted: 3-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.60 - 1.39

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Norwich last 3 at home: 2W-0D-1L (scored 9, conceded 6)

6 Southampton last 4 away: 0W-2D-2L (scored 4, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): Southampton lead 6-2 (2D), avg 2.9 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Norwich without: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo (+10 more)

9 Southampton without: C. Bragg, C. Bragg

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Norwich with an estimated 40% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.60-1.39 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Norwich, so treat this one with extra caution. Southampton lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Norwich have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 3 at home (scoring 9, conceding 6), while Southampton have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 6). Norwich without: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo (+10 more); Southampton without: C. Bragg, C. Bragg.