Wolves vs Bolton

Tue 13 Oct, 18:45

FT 1-3

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 68%

Wolves

Predicted Winner

4-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-3

Predicted: 4-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 4.12 - 1.06

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Wolves last 3 at home: 2W-1D-0L (scored 7, conceded 3)

5 Bolton last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 6, conceded 11)

6 H2H (10): even, 4D, avg 3.5 goals, BTTS 70%

7 Wolves without: R. Jimenez, Y. Mosquera (+8 more)

8 Bolton without: C. Forino-Joseph, C. Forino-Joseph

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Wolves with an estimated 68% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (4.12-1.06 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Wolves have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 3 at home (scoring 7, conceding 3), while Bolton have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 11). The head-to-head is even (3 win each, 4 draws in their last 10), averaging 3.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Wolves without: R. Jimenez, Y. Mosquera (+8 more); Bolton without: C. Forino-Joseph, C. Forino-Joseph.