Stoke City vs Middlesbrough

Tue 13 Oct, 19:00

FT 2-3

AI Prediction

LOW 42%

Stoke City

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-3

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.77 - 0.66

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Stoke City last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 9, conceded 4)

6 Middlesbrough last 5 away: 2W-2D-1L (scored 7, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): Middlesbrough lead 4-3 (3D), avg 2.8 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Stoke City without: A. Ampah, A. Cresswell (+8 more)

9 Middlesbrough without: A. Jones, R. Pukstas (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Stoke City with an estimated 42% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.77-0.66 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Middlesbrough, while the blended pick still favours Stoke City, so treat this one with extra caution. Stoke City have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 9, conceding 4), while Middlesbrough have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 7). Middlesbrough lead the head-to-head 4-3 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Stoke City without: A. Ampah, A. Cresswell (+8 more); Middlesbrough without: A. Jones, R. Pukstas (+4 more).