Millwall vs Swansea

Tue 13 Oct, 18:45

FT 0-1

AI Prediction

LOW 41%

Millwall

Predicted Winner

3-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-1

Predicted: 3-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.99 - 1.77

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Millwall last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 9, conceded 6)

5 Swansea last 4 away: 3W-0D-1L (scored 8, conceded 5)

6 H2H (10): Millwall lead 5-2 (3D), avg 1.9 goals, BTTS 40%

7 Millwall without: J. Coburn, C. De Norre (+12 more)

8 Swansea without: C. Burgess, S. Eustaquio (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Millwall with an estimated 41% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.99-1.77 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Millwall lead the head-to-head 5-2 (with 3 draws), averaging 1.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Millwall have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 9, conceding 6), while Swansea have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 5). Millwall without: J. Coburn, C. De Norre (+12 more); Swansea without: C. Burgess, S. Eustaquio (+6 more).