Cardiff vs Watford

Tue 13 Oct, 18:45

FT 5-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 58%

Cardiff

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 5-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.55 - 0.22

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Cardiff last 5 at home: 1W-3D-1L (scored 8, conceded 7)

5 Watford last 4 away: 0W-1D-3L (scored 1, conceded 5)

6 H2H (10): even, 2D, avg 3.0 goals, BTTS 80%

7 Cardiff without: K. Bielik, C. Chambers (+8 more)

8 Watford without: K. Baah, E. Bove (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Cardiff with an estimated 58% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.55-0.22 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Cardiff have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 8, conceding 7), while Watford have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 1, conceding 5). The head-to-head is even (4 win each, 2 draws in their last 10), averaging 3.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 80% of meetings. Cardiff without: K. Bielik, C. Chambers (+8 more); Watford without: K. Baah, E. Bove (+8 more).