Burnley vs Charlton

Tue 13 Oct, 18:45

FT 2-2

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 56%

Burnley

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-2

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.99 - 1.06

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Burnley last 4 at home: 0W-3D-1L (scored 5, conceded 6)

5 Charlton last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 5, conceded 14)

6 H2H (6): Burnley lead 5-1 (0D), avg 2.5 goals, BTTS 0%

7 Burnley without: E. Agyei, A. Barnes (+24 more)

8 Charlton without: N. Chalobah, M. Godden (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Burnley with an estimated 56% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.99-1.06 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Burnley lead the head-to-head 5-1 (with 0 draws), averaging 2.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 0% of meetings. Burnley have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 5, conceding 6), while Charlton have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 14). Burnley without: E. Agyei, A. Barnes (+24 more); Charlton without: N. Chalobah, M. Godden (+4 more).