Birmingham vs Preston

Tue 13 Oct, 19:00

FT 4-0

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 56%

Birmingham

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 4-0

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.16 - 1.24

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Birmingham last 5 at home: 0W-4D-1L (scored 8, conceded 13)

5 Preston last 4 away: 0W-1D-3L (scored 4, conceded 7)

6 H2H (10): Birmingham lead 5-3 (2D), avg 1.8 goals, BTTS 50%

7 Birmingham without: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho (+2 more)

8 Preston without: A. McCann, B. Potts (+14 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Birmingham with an estimated 56% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.16-1.24 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Birmingham lead the head-to-head 5-3 (with 2 draws), averaging 1.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Birmingham have won 0, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 8, conceding 13), while Preston have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 7). Birmingham without: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho (+2 more); Preston without: A. McCann, B. Potts (+14 more).