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Bolton vs Cardiff

Sat 12 Sept, 11:30

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 37%

Bolton

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.86 - 1.16

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Bolton last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 5, conceded 5)

6 Cardiff last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 8, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): Cardiff lead 5-4 (1D), avg 2.4 goals, BTTS 30%

8 Bolton without: L. Stephenson, L. Brunt (+2 more)

9 Cardiff without: C. Chambers, W. Fish (+4 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bolton with an estimated 37% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.86-1.16 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Bolton, so treat this one with extra caution. Bolton have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 5, conceding 5), while Cardiff have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 7). Cardiff lead the head-to-head 5-4 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 30% of meetings. Bolton without: L. Stephenson, L. Brunt (+2 more); Cardiff without: C. Chambers, W. Fish (+4 more).