England vs Costa Rica

England heavy favorite at home (1.14 odds, 82.7% fair probability) despite mixed recent form. Costa Rica on strong streak (W2, 2.0 avg goals scored) but missing key striker Alonso Martínez (ACL). England's home advantage, superior squad depth, and defensive solidity (0.8 conceded avg) outweigh Costa Rica's attacking form. Light rain/wind at Wembley slightly suppresses scoring but not decisively. Over 2.5 leans slightly given Costa Rica's 83% O2.5 rate in recent matches and England's 3-0 win vs Bosnia. BTTS unlikely: England's 33% BTTS rate + Costa Rica's 17% BTTS rate + missing Martínez = defensive lean.

England at 1.14 is justified; home advantage, full squad, and Costa Rica's injury to key striker Martínez make England strong favorites.

Costa Rica's 17% BTTS rate + missing Martínez + England's defensive record (0.8 conceded) suggests England keeps clean sheet or Costa Rica fails to score.

Costa Rica's 83% O2.5 rate in recent form + England's 3-0 win vs Bosnia suggest attacking intent; combined expected goals ~2.2–2.8 leans slightly over.

England win or draw covers 98% fair probability; minimal value in X2 at 5.50 given England's home dominance and Costa Rica's injury crisis.