Newcastle vs Aston Villa

Sat 17 Oct, 16:30

FT 0-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 50%

Newcastle

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-1

Predicted: 3-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.71 - 1.13

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Newcastle last 5 at home: 2W-3D-0L (scored 10, conceded 8)

5 Aston Villa last 5 away: 4W-1D-0L (scored 12, conceded 6)

6 H2H (10): Newcastle lead 5-3 (2D), avg 3.7 goals, BTTS 50%

7 Newcastle without: A. Elanga, E. Jaouen (+6 more)

8 Aston Villa without: I. Maatsen, A. Onana (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Newcastle with an estimated 50% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.71-1.13 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Newcastle lead the head-to-head 5-3 (with 2 draws), averaging 3.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Newcastle have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 8), while Aston Villa have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 12, conceding 6). Newcastle without: A. Elanga, E. Jaouen (+6 more); Aston Villa without: I. Maatsen, A. Onana (+8 more).