Leeds vs Manchester United

Sun 18 Oct, 13:00

FT 1-1

AI Prediction

LOW 44%

Leeds

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.91 - 0.46

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Leeds last 4 at home: 2W-2D-0L (scored 9, conceded 2)

6 Manchester United last 4 away: 0W-2D-2L (scored 3, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): Manchester United lead 4-1 (5D), avg 2.7 goals, BTTS 60%

8 Leeds without: M. Joseph, J. Rodon (+4 more)

9 Manchester United without: P. Dorgu, T. Heaton (+12 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Leeds with an estimated 44% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.91-0.46 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Leeds, so treat this one with extra caution. Manchester United lead the head-to-head 4-1 (with 5 draws), averaging 2.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Leeds have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 9, conceding 2), while Manchester United have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 3, conceding 7). Leeds without: M. Joseph, J. Rodon (+4 more); Manchester United without: P. Dorgu, T. Heaton (+12 more).