Everton vs Chelsea

Sat 17 Oct, 11:30

FT 0-2

AI Prediction

LOW 41%

Everton

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-2

Predicted: 3-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.64 - 0.60

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Everton last 5 at home: 3W-2D-0L (scored 7, conceded 3)

6 Chelsea last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 7, conceded 10)

7 H2H (10): Chelsea lead 4-3 (3D), avg 2.2 goals, BTTS 20%

8 Everton without: V. Mykolenko, V. Mykolenko

9 Chelsea without: J. Gittens, R. James (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Everton with an estimated 41% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.64-0.60 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Chelsea, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Everton, so treat this one with extra caution. Everton have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 7, conceding 3), while Chelsea have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 10). Chelsea lead the head-to-head 4-3 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 20% of meetings. Everton without: V. Mykolenko, V. Mykolenko; Chelsea without: J. Gittens, R. James (+4 more).