Brentford vs Liverpool

Sat 17 Oct, 14:00

FT 1-2

AI Prediction

LOW 43%

Brentford

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-2

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.05 - 0.38

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Brentford last 4 at home: 3W-1D-0L (scored 14, conceded 1)

5 Liverpool last 4 away: 3W-1D-0L (scored 11, conceded 5)

6 H2H (10): Liverpool lead 6-2 (2D), avg 3.3 goals, BTTS 50%

7 Brentford without: K. Furo, N. Collins (+12 more)

8 Liverpool without: C. Bradley, H. Ekitike (+12 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Brentford with an estimated 43% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.05-0.38 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Liverpool lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 3.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Brentford have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 14, conceding 1), while Liverpool have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 11, conceding 5). Brentford without: K. Furo, N. Collins (+12 more); Liverpool without: C. Bradley, H. Ekitike (+12 more).