Bournemouth vs Sunderland

Sun 18 Oct, 13:00

FT 2-0

AI Prediction

LOW 38%

Bournemouth

Predicted Winner

3-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-0

Predicted: 3-2. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.83 - 1.53

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Bournemouth last 5 at home: 2W-2D-1L (scored 10, conceded 4)

6 Sunderland last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 7, conceded 9)

7 H2H (6): even, 2D, avg 2.5 goals, BTTS 67%

8 Bournemouth without: J. Araujo, E. J. Kroupi (+6 more)

9 Sunderland without: D. Ballard, T. Meunier (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bournemouth with an estimated 38% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.83-1.53 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Bournemouth, so treat this one with extra caution. Bournemouth have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 4), while Sunderland have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 9). The head-to-head is even (2 win each, 2 draws in their last 6), averaging 2.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 67% of meetings. Bournemouth without: J. Araujo, E. J. Kroupi (+6 more); Sunderland without: D. Ballard, T. Meunier (+6 more).