Brighton vs Arsenal

Sat 19 Sept, 14:00

FT 3-0

AI Prediction

LOW 45%

Draw

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-0

Predicted: 0-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 0.53

2 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

3 Brighton last 5 at home: 4W-1D-0L (scored 13, conceded 1)

4 Arsenal last 4 away: 4W-0D-0L (scored 8, conceded 2)

5 H2H (10): Arsenal lead 6-2 (2D), avg 2.8 goals, BTTS 50%

6 Brighton without: F. Azeez, E. Ferguson (+18 more)

7 Arsenal without: W. Saliba, C. Mosquera (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Draw with an estimated 45% win probability, based on a Poisson xG model (0.00-0.53 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Arsenal lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Brighton have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 13, conceding 1), while Arsenal have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 2). Brighton without: F. Azeez, E. Ferguson (+18 more); Arsenal without: W. Saliba, C. Mosquera (+4 more).