Drita vs Kauno Žalgiris

This is a replay of a 1-1 draw from 4 days ago. Data quality is MED: no odds, minimal H2H (1 match, 100% BTTS), and both teams have played only 1 match in the stated season (likely qualifying round context). Drita is in poor form (1W-7L-1D last 10), averaging 0.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Kauno Žalgiris is stronger (recent 1W streak, 1.2 scored/0.8 conceded), but the H2H draw and identical 1-1 scoreline 4 days ago is the strongest signal. Both teams scored in the first match; BTTS rate 100% in H2H. Expected goals cannot be computed (no league-wide attack/defense multipliers). Draw is the baseline given identical odds-implied probability and H2H history showing 100% draw rate. Confidence is low due to data scarcity and the unusual fixture context (likely a two-legged tie).

H2H shows 1-1 draw 4 days ago; no odds to override; draw is baseline.

H2H 100% BTTS; both teams' recent form shows 40-44% BTTS rates; first match both scored.

H2H was 2 goals total; Drita avg 0.9 scored, Žalgiris 1.2 = ~2.1 expected; Under 2.5 slightly favored but low confidence.

Kauno Žalgiris stronger form and better defensive record (0.8 conceded vs Drita 1.5); X2 covers draw + away win.

No Poisson data; Kauno Žalgiris slight favorite but gap too small to estimate handicap cover reliably.

Drita avg 0.9 goals/match; Žalgiris avg 1.2; both priors weak without league context.

No corner data; UEFA qualifying typically lower-intensity; estimate ~8-9 total corners; baseline Under.

No card data; UEFA qualifying baseline ~4-5 cards; symmetric discipline; lean slightly Under.