Petrocub vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Petrocub shows strong recent form (W2 streak, 1.9 goals/match avg, 50% clean sheet rate) vs Egnatia's volatile record (W4 but preceded by 3 losses, 1.3 goals conceded/match). Home advantage in UCL qualifier context favors Petrocub. Market prices home at 42.1% fair; our Poisson-adjusted estimate (form-weighted, home +0.3 boost) reaches ~55%. Egnatia's away struggles and Petrocub's defensive solidity suggest under 2.5 despite BTTS lean. Data quality medium; confidence capped at 62% per calibration.

Petrocub form + home advantage + Egnatia away weakness; fair 42.1% vs our 55% is value.

Both teams 40-50% BTTS recent; Egnatia concedes 1.3/match away, Petrocub scores 1.9 home.

Fair 57.6% Under; Petrocub's 50% CS rate and Egnatia's defensive frailty suggest 2-1 or 2-0 more likely than 3+.

Home win or draw covers 75.2% fair; home form + draw baseline (25% league avg) make 1X safer than 12.

Home -0.5 at 51.3% fair is near break-even; home -1 at 23.1% is underpriced if Petrocub wins 2-0 (likely scenario).

Petrocub home Over 1.5 fair 58.3%; Egnatia away Under 1.5 fair 76.9% — both align with form.

No recent corner data; UCL qualifier typically 9-11 corners; Over 8.5 at 59.9% fair is slight lean but low confidence.

No card data; UCL qualifier baseline ~4-5 cards; no strong signal; default under slight lean on low-aggression fixture.