Paris FC vs Rennes

Sun 18 Oct, 15:15

FT 4-3

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 55%

Paris FC

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 4-3

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 13pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.84 - 0.23

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Paris FC last 3 at home: 2W-1D-0L (scored 5, conceded 1)

6 Rennes last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 3, conceded 8)

7 H2H (2): Rennes lead 2-0 (0D), avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Paris FC without: J. Ikone, N. Sangui (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Paris FC with an estimated 55% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.84-0.23 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Paris FC runs 13 points above the market's fair price. Rennes lead the head-to-head 2-0 (with 0 draws), averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Paris FC have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 3 at home (scoring 5, conceding 1), while Rennes have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 3, conceding 8). Paris FC without: J. Ikone, N. Sangui (+6 more).