Angers vs Marseille

Sun 18 Oct, 13:00

FT 2-5

AI Prediction

LOW 41%

Marseille

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-5

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.68 - 0.61

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Angers last 5 at home: 3W-0D-2L (scored 8, conceded 7)

6 Marseille last 4 away: 1W-0D-3L (scored 3, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): Marseille lead 6-1 (3D), avg 3.7 goals, BTTS 70%

8 Angers without: J. Lefort, H. Belkebla (+6 more)

9 Marseille without: D. Cornelius, P. Hojbjerg (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Marseille with an estimated 41% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.68-0.61 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward a draw, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Marseille, so treat this one with extra caution. Marseille lead the head-to-head 6-1 (with 3 draws), averaging 3.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Angers have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 8, conceding 7), while Marseille have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 3, conceding 7). Angers without: J. Lefort, H. Belkebla (+6 more); Marseille without: D. Cornelius, P. Hojbjerg (+2 more).