Venezia vs Napoli

Sat 17 Oct, 13:00

FT 1-0

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 64%

Napoli

Predicted Winner

1-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-0

Predicted: 1-3. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.61 - 3.04

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Venezia last 4 at home: 1W-0D-3L (scored 5, conceded 10)

6 Napoli last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 6, conceded 7)

7 H2H (4): Napoli lead 3-0 (1D), avg 1.3 goals, BTTS 0%

8 Venezia without: A. Adorante, A. Bella-Kotchap (+10 more)

9 Napoli without: A. Buongiorno, David Neres (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Napoli with an estimated 64% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.61-3.04 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Napoli, so treat this one with extra caution. Napoli lead the head-to-head 3-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 1.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 0% of meetings. Venezia have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 4 at home (scoring 5, conceding 10), while Napoli have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 7). Venezia without: A. Adorante, A. Bella-Kotchap (+10 more); Napoli without: A. Buongiorno, David Neres (+6 more).