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Parma vs Torino

Mon 19 Oct, 18:45

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 39%

Torino

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.91 - 0.91

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Parma last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 5, conceded 5)

6 Torino last 5 away: 2W-2D-1L (scored 6, conceded 5)

7 H2H (10): even, 4D, avg 2.6 goals, BTTS 60%

8 Parma without: P. Almqvist, N. Elphege (+6 more)

9 Torino without: E. Ilkhan, F. Israel (+4 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Torino with an estimated 39% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.91-0.91 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Parma, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Torino, so treat this one with extra caution. Parma have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 5, conceding 5), while Torino have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 5). The head-to-head is even (3 win each, 4 draws in their last 10), averaging 2.6 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Parma without: P. Almqvist, N. Elphege (+6 more); Torino without: E. Ilkhan, F. Israel (+4 more).