Monza vs Cagliari

Mon 19 Oct, 16:30

AI Prediction

LOW 45%

Cagliari

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.45 - 1.81

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Monza last 4 at home: 2W-0D-2L (scored 9, conceded 7)

6 Cagliari last 4 away: 3W-1D-0L (scored 6, conceded 3)

7 H2H (4): Cagliari lead 2-1 (1D), avg 2.3 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Monza without: O. Forson, L. Lucchesi (+12 more)

9 Cagliari without: M. Felici, R. Idrissi (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Cagliari with an estimated 45% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.45-1.81 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Monza, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Cagliari, so treat this one with extra caution. Monza have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 9, conceding 7), while Cagliari have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 3). Cagliari lead the head-to-head 2-1 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Monza without: O. Forson, L. Lucchesi (+12 more); Cagliari without: M. Felici, R. Idrissi (+4 more).