Bologna vs Inter

Sat 17 Oct, 16:00

FT 1-3

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 56%

Inter

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-3

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.68 - 1.37

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Bologna last 5 at home: 1W-2D-2L (scored 7, conceded 9)

6 Inter last 3 away: 1W-1D-1L (scored 4, conceded 4)

7 H2H (10): even, 4D, avg 3.3 goals, BTTS 70%

8 Bologna without: E. Holm, R. Orsolini (+2 more)

9 Inter without: C. Jones, L. Martinez (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Inter with an estimated 56% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.68-1.37 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Inter, so treat this one with extra caution. Bologna have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 7, conceding 9), while Inter have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 4). The head-to-head is even (3 win each, 4 draws in their last 10), averaging 3.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Bologna without: E. Holm, R. Orsolini (+2 more); Inter without: C. Jones, L. Martinez (+6 more).