AC Milan vs Atalanta

Sun 18 Oct, 16:00

FT 3-2

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 51%

AC Milan

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-2

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 3.46 - 0.00

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 AC Milan last 3 at home: 2W-0D-1L (scored 5, conceded 2)

5 Atalanta last 3 away: 1W-0D-2L (scored 2, conceded 4)

6 H2H (10): Atalanta lead 5-2 (3D), avg 2.7 goals, BTTS 70%

7 AC Milan without: M. Gabbia, A. Saelemaekers (+2 more)

8 Atalanta without: E. Elmas, I. Hien (+14 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours AC Milan with an estimated 51% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.46-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Atalanta lead the head-to-head 5-2 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. AC Milan have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 3 at home (scoring 5, conceding 2), while Atalanta have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 2, conceding 4). AC Milan without: M. Gabbia, A. Saelemaekers (+2 more); Atalanta without: E. Elmas, I. Hien (+14 more).