Bologna vs Torino

Sat 19 Sept, 13:00

FT 1-1

AI Prediction

LOW 35%

Torino

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-1

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.99 - 1.49

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Bologna last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 8, conceded 8)

6 Torino last 4 away: 2W-1D-1L (scored 5, conceded 4)

7 H2H (10): Bologna lead 5-2 (3D), avg 1.9 goals, BTTS 40%

8 Bologna without: A. Dovbyk, A. Dovbyk

9 Torino without: C. Adams, F. Israel (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Torino with an estimated 35% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.99-1.49 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Bologna, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Torino, so treat this one with extra caution. Bologna lead the head-to-head 5-2 (with 3 draws), averaging 1.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Bologna have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 8, conceding 8), while Torino have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 4). Bologna without: A. Dovbyk, A. Dovbyk; Torino without: C. Adams, F. Israel (+6 more).