NK Slaven Belupo vs Dinamo Zagreb

Sun 18 Oct, 16:00

FT 1-5

AI Prediction

LOW 47%

Dinamo Zagreb

Predicted Winner

2-4

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-5

Predicted: 2-4. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 3.86 - 1.61

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 NK Slaven Belupo last 4 at home: 3W-0D-1L (scored 9, conceded 6)

6 Dinamo Zagreb last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 11, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): Dinamo Zagreb lead 8-1 (1D), avg 4.3 goals, BTTS 70%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Dinamo Zagreb with an estimated 47% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.86-1.61 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward NK Slaven Belupo, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Dinamo Zagreb, so treat this one with extra caution. Dinamo Zagreb lead the head-to-head 8-1 (with 1 draw), averaging 4.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. NK Slaven Belupo have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 9, conceding 6), while Dinamo Zagreb have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 11, conceding 6).