NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Istra 1961

Sat 17 Oct, 13:00

FT 2-0

AI Prediction

LOW 36%

Istra 1961

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-0

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.27 - 1.11

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb last 3 at home: 1W-1D-1L (scored 4, conceded 3)

6 Istra 1961 last 5 away: 2W-2D-1L (scored 12, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): Istra 1961 lead 4-3 (3D), avg 2.9 goals, BTTS 60%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Istra 1961 with an estimated 36% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.27-1.11 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, the Poisson model leans toward NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Istra 1961, so treat this one with extra caution. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 3 at home (scoring 4, conceding 3), while Istra 1961 have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 12, conceding 6). Istra 1961 lead the head-to-head 4-3 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings.