HNK Hajduk Split vs NK Varazdin

Sun 18 Oct, 13:00

FT 1-0

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 55%

HNK Hajduk Split

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-0

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.12 - 0.77

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 HNK Hajduk Split last 5 at home: 5W-0D-0L (scored 11, conceded 2)

5 NK Varazdin last 5 away: 2W-2D-1L (scored 8, conceded 5)

6 H2H (10): NK Varazdin lead 4-3 (3D), avg 2.1 goals, BTTS 60%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours HNK Hajduk Split with an estimated 55% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.12-0.77 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. HNK Hajduk Split have won 5, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 11, conceding 2), while NK Varazdin have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 5). NK Varazdin lead the head-to-head 4-3 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings.