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Latvia vs Montenegro

Fri 2 Oct, 16:00

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 51%

Montenegro

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Latvia last 5 at home: 1W-2D-2L (scored 3, conceded 8)

6 Montenegro last 5 away: 3W-1D-1L (scored 8, conceded 9)

7 H2H (3): Montenegro lead 1-0 (2D), avg 1.7 goals, BTTS 67%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Montenegro with an estimated 51% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Montenegro, so treat this one with extra caution. Latvia have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 3, conceding 8), while Montenegro have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 9). Montenegro lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 2 draws), averaging 1.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 67% of meetings.