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Bulgaria vs Luxembourg

Sat 26 Sept, 16:00

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 43%

Bulgaria

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

3 Bulgaria last 4 at home: 1W-0D-3L (scored 3, conceded 11)

4 Luxembourg last 5 away: 2W-0D-3L (scored 3, conceded 7)

5 H2H (5): Bulgaria lead 2-0 (3D), avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 40%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bulgaria with an estimated 43% win probability, based on market odds and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Bulgaria lead the head-to-head 2-0 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Bulgaria have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 4 at home (scoring 3, conceding 11), while Luxembourg have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 3, conceding 7).