Moldova vs Lithuania

This friendly match between Moldova and Lithuania features two weaker European national teams with very poor form. The odds suggest a relatively even contest with slight advantage to Lithuania (39.2% vs 37.0%). Moldova has catastrophic form - in their last 6 matches they conceded 24 goals with an average of 4.0 goals conceded per game. Particularly concerning is their match against Norway where they lost 1-11. Lithuania also has poor form but slightly better defense with 2.0 goals conceded per game average. Key factor is Moldova playing at home, which could provide some motivation in a friendly match. For Over/Under 2.5, the data is contradictory - Moldova has 67% Over rate (4.7 average) while Lithuania has 50% (2.7 average). Combining this data suggests around 2.7 total goals, which is close to the 2.5 threshold. BTTS looks likely as both teams regularly concede goals, and Moldova at home could score against Lithuania's weak defense. The odds on BTTS No (1.67) suggest 59.9% probability, which isn't convincing given both teams' defensive problems.

Odds favor Lithuania (39.2%) and their defense is more stable than Moldova's

Both teams have defensive issues, Moldova at home can score

Combined data suggests 2.7 goals, close to threshold, odds favor Under

Lithuania or draw covers 71.4% probability according to odds