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Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland

Mon 5 Oct, 18:45

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 40%

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.42 - 0.81

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Bosnia & Herzegovina last 4 at home: 1W-3D-0L (scored 5, conceded 3)

6 Poland last 4 away: 2W-0D-2L (scored 8, conceded 8)

7 H2H (3): Poland lead 2-0 (1D), avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 33%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bosnia & Herzegovina with an estimated 40% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.42-0.81 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Poland, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Bosnia & Herzegovina, so treat this one with extra caution. Poland lead the head-to-head 2-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 33% of meetings. Bosnia & Herzegovina have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 5, conceding 3), while Poland have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 8).