Mon 5 Oct, 18:45
The model favours Ukraine with an estimated 39% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Ukraine have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 6, conceding 7), while Hungary have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 3, conceding 2). Ukraine lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 0 draws), averaging 1.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 0% of meetings.
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