Italy vs Türkiye

Mon 5 Oct, 18:45

FT 3-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 62%

Italy

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 0.00

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Italy last 4 at home: 2W-0D-2L (scored 6, conceded 6)

5 Türkiye last 4 away: 2W-0D-2L (scored 3, conceded 6)

6 H2H (4): Italy lead 3-0 (1D), avg 3.3 goals, BTTS 50%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Italy with an estimated 62% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Italy lead the head-to-head 3-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Italy have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 6, conceding 6), while Türkiye have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 3, conceding 6).