France vs Belgium

Mon 5 Oct, 18:45

FT 4-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 55%

France

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 4-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 8pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 1.61

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 France last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 10, conceded 9)

6 Belgium last 4 away: 3W-0D-1L (scored 12, conceded 4)

7 H2H (6): France lead 6-0 (0D), avg 2.2 goals, BTTS 33%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours France with an estimated 55% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-1.61 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in France than the model is — the blend sits 8 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. France lead the head-to-head 6-0 (with 0 draws), averaging 2.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 33% of meetings. France have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 9), while Belgium have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 12, conceding 4).