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Belarus vs San Marino

Sat 3 Oct, 16:00

🎯 AI Prediction

HIGH 77%

Belarus

Predicted Winner

3-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 11pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Belarus last 4 at home: 1W-2D-1L (scored 6, conceded 9)

5 San Marino last 4 away: 0W-0D-4L (scored 2, conceded 20)

6 H2H (2): Belarus lead 2-0 (0D), avg 3.5 goals, BTTS 0%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Belarus with an estimated 77% win probability, based on market odds and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Belarus than the model is — the blend sits 11 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Belarus lead the head-to-head 2-0 (with 0 draws), averaging 3.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 0% of meetings. Belarus have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 6, conceding 9), while San Marino have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 2, conceding 20).