Fri 2 Oct, 14:00
The model favours Kazakhstan with an estimated 49% win probability, based on market odds and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Kazakhstan have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 3 at home (scoring 4, conceding 1), while Moldova have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 11). Kazakhstan lead the head-to-head 2-1 (with 0 draws), averaging 1.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 33% of meetings.
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