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Portugal vs Wales

Thu 24 Sept, 18:45

🎯 AI Prediction

HIGH 71%

Portugal

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 8pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Portugal last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 10, conceded 4)

5 Wales last 4 away: 2W-0D-2L (scored 3, conceded 5)

6 H2H (1): Portugal lead 1-0 (0D), avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 0%

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Portugal with an estimated 71% win probability, based on market odds and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Portugal than the model is — the blend sits 8 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Portugal have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 4), while Wales have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 3, conceding 5). Portugal lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 0 draws), averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 0% of meetings.