England vs Ghana

England are heavy favorites (79% fair probability) with strong recent form (3 wins, 2.6 goals/match, 70% clean sheet rate). Ghana won their opener but show fragility: 4 losses in last 10, 1.1 goals/match, 30% BTTS rate. England's home advantage, superior attacking output (4 goals vs Croatia), and Ghana's defensive inconsistency (1.3 conceded/match) support a home win. However, odds at 1.18 are steep; value lies in Under 2.5 (market 41.9% fair, Poisson suggests ~2.0 combined expected goals given Ghana's weak attack). BTTS unlikely given Ghana's recent struggles and England's clean sheet prowess.

England's form, home advantage, and Ghana's defensive fragility make home win highly probable despite short odds.

Ghana's 30% BTTS rate and 1.1 goals/match vs England's 70% clean sheet rate strongly favors at least one team failing to score.

Ghana's weak attack (1.1 goals/match) combined with England's defensive solidity suggests total around 2.0 goals; Under 2.5 offers value at 41.9% fair vs ~55% implied.

England win or draw is 93.6% probable; 1X odds (1.03) offer safety but minimal value.

England -1.5 at 1.62 (61.7%) aligns with expected 2-0 scoreline; better value than -1 (71.4%) given Ghana's attacking weakness.

England Over 1.5 (76.9% at 1.3) is strong; Ghana Under 0.5 (61.7% at 1.62) reflects their 1.1 goals/match and defensive record.

England average 9.7 corners/match; Ghana 4 in last match. Over 8.5 (58.8%) is slightly favored but limited edge.

England 2.3 cards/match, Ghana 3 in last match; total ~5-6 expected, but World Cup matches can vary; minimal edge.