Argentina vs Algeria

Argentina enters as clear favorite (1.4 odds, 67% fair probability) with exceptional recent form: 4 straight wins, 3.0 goals/match, 75% clean sheet rate. Algeria shows solid form (W2 streak, 2.2 goals/match) but 0% BTTS rate and 83% clean sheet rate indicate defensive solidity. No H2H data exists. Poisson unavailable due to missing season stats. Market heavily favors Argentina (71% Sofascore), which aligns with form differential. However, Algeria's defensive record (0.3 conceded/match) and low BTTS rate (0%) suggest tight contest. Lean home win with under 2.5 goals given Algeria's defensive strength and Argentina's recent pattern of clean sheets.

Argentina's W4 form with 3.0 goals/match and dominant recent record justifies home favorite, though 67% fair probability leaves limited edge.

Algeria's 0% BTTS rate and 83% clean sheet rate in recent form strongly suggest at least one team fails to score.

Algeria's defensive solidity (0.3 conceded/match, 83% clean sheets) and 33% O2.5 rate in recent form offset Argentina's attacking prowess.

Home/Draw at 95% vigged odds offers minimal edge; Argentina favored but Algeria's defense warrants draw consideration.