Iran vs New Zealand

Iran arrives with W3 streak, strong recent form (2.2 goals/match, 60% CS rate), and dominant recent wins including 5-0 away vs Costa Rica. New Zealand in freefall: L2 streak, 0.8 goals/match, 0% CS rate, conceding 2.0/match. Iran's 60% clean sheet rate and New Zealand's 67% failed-to-score rate suggest low-scoring Iran win. Odds slightly undervalue Iran (50.3% fair vs 53.2% Sofascore); market overprices BTTS (47.6% fair) given New Zealand's offensive collapse. World Cup context: Iran seeded higher, New Zealand struggling badly. Moderate confidence due to lack of H2H and early-tournament variance.

Iran's W3 streak and dominant recent form (2.2 goals/match, 60% CS) heavily favors home vs New Zealand's L2 collapse (0.8 goals/match, 0% CS).

New Zealand's 67% failed-to-score rate and Iran's 60% clean sheet rate strongly suggest at least one team blanks.

Combined expected goals ~2.0 (Iran 1.4 + NZ 0.6 adjusted for away form); New Zealand's offensive crisis and Iran's defensive strength point to low-scoring match.

Iran home favorite with strong form; draw or Iran win covers 82% fair probability; New Zealand's poor form makes away win unlikely.