EA7 Emporio Armani Milano vs Virtus Bologna

Milano has home court advantage and better league position (13th vs 14th), but Bologna comes in excellent form with 5 straight wins. Key factor is Bologna beat Milano 97-85 in their last meeting a month ago. Milano has better offensive numbers in recent form (87.8 vs 75.7 ppg), but Bologna plays incredibly tight defense (67.2 ppg allowed). I expect a low-scoring game as both teams have 0% over rate in recent matches. Milano will likely win at home, but the margin won't be large due to Bologna's good form. The market overvalues Milano at -6.5 spread - Bologna has shown they can compete with this opponent.

Home advantage and better league position give Milano the edge despite Bologna's good form

Both teams have 0% over rate, estimated total of 157.2 points is well below the 168.5 line

Bologna is in excellent form and beat Milano in their last meeting, 6.5 spread is too high